Many supporters of Peter Obi, Presidential candidate of Labour Party set Twitter aglow after a foundation published a report that their principal is leading in the September Presidential Poll.
Though commissioned by Anap Foundation for September 2022 Presidential Poll, Arise TV trended the poll of the three-horse presidential contenders with one dark horse based on their acceptability and popularity rating in the 2023 general elections.
The report indicates that Peter Obi of LP is leading with 21 per cent in the national poll, Bola Tinubu of All Progressives Congress (APC) and Atiku Abubakar of Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) tallied with 13 per cent while Rabiu Kwankwaso of New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) is trailing with one per cent.
A breakdown shows that Obi leads 4 per cent in North East, 16 per cent in North Central, 8 per cent in North West, 68 per cent in South East, 46 per cent in South South and12 per cent, South West.
Tinubu has 18 per cent in North East, 16 per cent, North Central;15 per cent, North West; 0 per cent, South East; 2 per cent, South South; and 18 per cent in South West.
Abubakar is leading 28 per cent in North East; 9 per cent, North Central; 20 per cent, North West; one per cent, South East; 6 per cent, South South; and 4 per cent in South West.
Kwankwaso leads by 3 per cent in North East, 3 per cent, North Central; 9 per cent, North West; 0 per cent, South East; 1 per cent, South South; and one per cent in South West.
However, as of the time of this report, the researchers had not made public the methodology of the poll and how many people were sampled in gathering the data.
“The results showed a significant lead for Mr Peter Obi with 21 per cent of voters proposing to vote for him if the presidential election were to be conducted today; and 13 per cent each proposing to vote for Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Alhaji Atiku Abubakar who are both tied in second place. Dr Rabiu Kwankwaso was a distant fourth with 3 per cent of voters proposing to vote for him,” a statement by ANAP foundation announcing the result of the poll shows.
The statement added that the Labour Party candidate led the pack in virtually all the age categories.
The result, however, showed that about 33 per cent of the respondents were undecided while another 15 per cent refused to disclose who they would vote for; an indication that Mr Obi’s lead, according to the poll, is surmountable.
“Mr Peter Obi’s 8 percentage point lead at this early stage is significant, but not sufficient to separate him completely from a leading pack of candidates scoring 21 per cent, 13 per cent and 13 per cent respectively,” ANAP said in its statement.
“Undecided voters and those who prefer not to reveal their preferred candidate add up to a whopping 32 per cent and 15 per cent respectively. The gender split of undecided voters shows that 39 per cent of women are undecided versus 27 per cent of male
voters.”
Nigeria will hold her presidential elections in February 2023 with campaigns set to start at the end of September.
The poll put the percentage of registered voters at 99 per cent in the North-east; 90 per cent in the South-south, the North-central, and the North-west respectively. The lowest registered voter percentages were in the South-east with 88 per cent and the South-west with 85 per cent.
“When asked if respondents were aware of the various candidates vying for the presidency, data gathered showed that 99 per cent of the respondents were aware of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the APC. 98 per cent were aware of Alhaji Atiku Abubakar of the PDP. 95 per cent were aware of Mr Peter Obi of LP and 74 per cent were aware of Dr Rabiu Kwankwaso of the NNPP. All other candidates scored below 55 per cent in terms of name recognition.”
The researchers said the top five reasons why voters were more inclined to vote in the forthcoming elections include: “the need to tackle insecurity (45 per cent), the economy (20 per cent), education (9 per cent), unemployment (7 per cent) and poverty alleviation (4 per cent).”
Similarly, 46 per cent of the respondents would love to see their preferred presidential candidates participate in a televised interview and/or debate, with the interview/debates spanning across topics like their party manifestos, issues of security, economy, education, job creation, healthcare and agriculture amongst others.
“It is worthy of note that 69 per cent of those aged 18-25, 76 per cent of those aged 26-35, 77 per cent of those aged 36-45, 87 per cent of those aged 46-60 and 89 per cent of those aged 61+ responded saying that they would vote in the coming elections.”
The age groups that expressed the greatest willingness to vote were those between 46-60 and 61+ years.
“On average, the poll shows that almost 8 in 10 registered voters are certain that they would be voting in the next presidential election. If they stay committed then we could witness a huge turnout in the February 2023 elections.”
But, while the results show some significant trends, the poll said it is key to note that the battle ahead lies in the hands of the swing voters, as it appears they would ultimately decide which candidate takes the lead to emerge as the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria in the 2023 presidential elections.
“In summary, our September 2022 Polls are inconclusive in terms of establishing a clear winner, as the undecided voters are large enough to turn the tables. However, Anap Foundation has concluded that the trends are clear enough to establish the front runners and so our subsequent polls will concentrate on the 4 leading candidates only.”
Reacting to the poll, Twitter user Arch Angel Jesse tweeted ‘‘Share to APC supporters!! Their plans to make INEC Disqualify Peter Obi will not work!!’’
“Labour Party is coming with the David strategy” – Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour, Labour Party Lagos State Governorship Candidate Obidients | Arise TV | #TableShaker | North Central,’’ stated GRV Media LISTEN NIGERIA!
‘‘Everyone is working hard to see that we deliver Nigeria is our mindless, corrupt and people disoriented Politicians. Arise TV Obidients Benue Port Harcourt,’’ tweeted Obulor Nnadum.
