Strong indications have emerged that the global oil market would be relatively stable, and by extension, revenue of nations, including Nigeria in 2019, as the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC, has predicted demand to rise by 1.29 mb/d during the period.
In its monthly report sent to Vanguard Wednesday, OPEC stated: “Total oil demand is now pegged at 98.79 mb/d. In 2019, world oil demand is anticipated to rise by 1.29 mb/d, similar to last month’s projections.
“As a result, total world oil demand is anticipated to reach 100.08 mb/d. Oil demand growth is projected to originate from other Asia, led by India, followed China, then OECD Americas.
“OECD countries will rise by 0.25 mb/d, while non-OECD countries will drive oil demand growth by adding an estimated 1.04 mb/d in 2019.
“Non-OPEC oil supply growth in 2018 is estimated at 2.50 mb/d, an upward revision of 0.19 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment. The US, Canada, Russia and Kazakhstan are expected to be the main growth drivers, while Mexico and Norway are anticipated to show the largest declines.
“With this, total non-OPEC supply for 2018 is now estimated at 60.03 mb/d. Non-OPEC oil supply growth in 2019 was revised down by 0.08 mb/d to stand at 2.16 mb/d and is now forecast to reach an average of 62.19 mb/d.
“This is mainly due to a lower oil supply forecast for Canada given Alberta’s announcement of a mandatory production adjustment, as well as downward supply forecast adjustments for the 10 non-OPEC participants in the Declaration of Corporation in the first half of 2019.
“The US, Brazil, Russia and the UK are the main drivers for next year’s growth, while Mexico and Norway are expected to see sizeable declines. OPEC NGLs in 2018 and 2019 are expected to grow by 0.10 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.34 mb/d and 6.45 mb/d, respectively.”
The organisation that forecasted the global economic growth to remain unchanged stated: “The global economic growth forecast remains unchanged at 3.7 per cent for 2018 and at 3.5 per cent for 2019. In the OECD, growth in the US is unchanged at 2.9 per cent for 2018 and at 2.6 per cent for 2019.
“Euro-zone growth remains at 1.9 per cent for 2018 and 1.7 per cent for 2019. GDP growth in Japan was revised down slightly to 1.0 per cent for 2018, but is unchanged at 1.1 per cent for 2019. In the non-OECD countries, both India’s and China’s growth forecasts remain at 7.5 per cent and 6.5 per cent for 2018, respectively, and at 7.2 per cent and 6.1 per cent, respectively, for 2019.
“Growth in Brazil remains unchanged at 1.1 per cent for 2018 and at 1.8 per cent for 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast is also unchanged at 1.6 per cent for 2018 and 1.7 per cent for 2019. While the upside to global growth is limited, the risk remains skewed to the downside amid ongoing trade tensions, monetary tightening and geopolitical challenges.”
