The forthcoming primary to select a presidential flag bearer for Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, is raising dust among different political gladiators. The venue: Port Harcourt is a settled issue as National Executive Council members have given a nod to it. The October 6 is certain and delegates for the national convention from the 36 states including FCT, Abuja have been selected. The midwife of the convention: Rivers State Governor Nyesom Wike is, no doubt, happy for securing the hosting right of the major opposition political party in West Africa.
For some months now, the 13 PDP presidential aspirants have had sleepless nights in putting their axe together to grab the coveted trophy: presidential ticket. Some presidential aspirants had criss-crossed the length and breath of the country to canvass for votes. Others collected the nomination forms and expression of interest and went home to throw party for their loved ones as the country’s presidential aspirants.
Uncertain of their fate, few double crossed the race by using surrogates to also collect the nomination form of Senate for them. The palpable fear among the not-too-strong ones is understood in that they do not want to lose out completely in the emerging political marriage. It is modern-day wisdom.
With few days to go, most governors who are the match makers, the party’s ambassadors- Board of Trustees members as well as the match fixing referees- national officers must have formed their opinions on whom to support. For the secret not to leak out of their bags, they are yet to relay information to their delegates whom to vote for during the convention.
Yet, the Port Harcourt Convention will make or mar the chances of the party wanting to wrest power from President Muhammadu Buhari. The decision to choose a man of integrity, sound education, and political clout particularly from a geo-political region with huge voting strength will give Buhari a run for his money. On the other hand, inability to choose an acceptable person with saleable credentials, national appeal and strong followership from a region with large votes can mar the party’s chances, thus consigning the party again to the usual position: opposition.
Voting Strength Of The Six Geo-Political Regions
The Punch reported that as at January 2018, for example, North West currently has a total of 18,505,984 voters, which is the highest in the country. North West States of Nigeria are Zamfara, Kano, Kebbi, Katsina, Sokoto, Kaduna and Jigawa. Buhari comes from here and any PDP candidate from this region will square up with him and divide votes for his party.
Further statistics show that of 73,944,312 registered voters across Nigeria, South West has 14,626,800 votes, the second highest number of registered voters. The South South is third with 11,101,093 registered voters.
In the other two zones, the North Central has 10,586,965 registered voters, while the North East zone has 9,929,015. The South East has 8,293,093.
Lagos State has the highest number of voters with 6,048,156, while Bayelsa State ranks the lowest with 754,394.
PDP’s Heavyweights
Atiku Abubakar
Aminu Tambuwal
Dr. Bukola Saraki
David Mark
PDP’s Featherweights
Jonah Jang
Ibrahim Dankwabo
Attahiru Bafarawa
PDP’s Bestmen
Mr. Stanley Osifo
Dr. Baba Datti Ahmed
Kabiru Taminu Turaki
Buhari’s Nightmares
Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso,
Sule Lamido
Ahmed Makarfi
According to a report published on ThisDay Newspapers, the forthcoming presidential primary of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) could be the party’s last trial and temptation on its path to rediscovery, rejuvenation and stability. But from the look of things, it appears the aggregation of multiple interests has made the party oblivious of how it passed through the valley of shadow of death.
Most lovers of democracy, particularly proponents of two strong parties, heaved a sigh of relief when the mainline PDP was announced triumphant in the life-threatening litigation over its leadership. It was in the euphoria of that legal reprieve that the hiccups over the December 9 and 10 convention held and returned a substantive national chairman in the person of Prince Uche Secondus, from the South-south geopolitical zone.
Many a PDP faithful glossed over the sophisticated argument about the morality or otherwise of denying the South West the benefit of micro zoning of the position. All those calculations petered out on the political arithmetic of having the chairmanship in a zone predominated by governors from the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).
As the major opposition party prepares to organize a crucial presidential primary to choose its presidential standard-bearer, it is possible that those ancient demons that harassed the party in the recent past could come back to test the intellectual cum political sagacity of its leaders.
All the same, the return of former playmakers of the party and other high net-worth politicians, some of who have declared their intentions to contest the presidential seat on its platform, combine to form the new excitement for PDP.
Many PDP stakeholders said the former Kano State governor was never fully settled in the party, stressing that even the manner in which he declared his intention to contest the presidential ticket left gaps that suggested superficial interest.
In 2014, Shekarau defected in protest after losing the APC structure to Kwankwaso. Barely a year to the 2019 general election, he has repeated a similar show by quitting PDP to his natural political habitat.
PDP Aspirants: Their strengths, weaknesses
It is possible that the party would be challenged by such considerations as capacity to win the election and deliver on the mandate, to weigh the pros and cons of the aspirants as it selects the best candidate to square up with the presumptive presidential candidate of the ruling party, President Muhammadu Buhari, during the main election next February.
Atiku Abubakar
He is a former vice president and veteran presidential aspirant. Widely believed to have all it takes to prosecute and win the election, Atiku enjoys easy name and face recognition nationwide, just like Buhari during the 2015 poll. He has successfully raised restructuring as a campaign issue for the next election and outlined pathways to solving a myriad of national socio-economic challenges. His avowed intention to do one term in office recommends him highly.
On the downside, the former vice president is accused of being an itinerant politician with a baggage of corruption perception.
Abubakar Bukola Saraki
Cuts the image of an urbane leader and imbued with democratic finesse. His ability to unite and enjoy the support the Eighth National Assembly, as well as efforts at preserving the separation of powers between the Executive and federal legislature are counted to his favour.
However, Saraki is perceived as a political opportunist driven by selfish interest. His ethnic origin, being neither core north nor belonging to the mainland Yoruba places a hefty political burden on his aspiration.
Ahmed Makarfi
A former national caretaker committee chairman of PDP, Makarfi came close to flying the PDP presidential flag in 2011, but lost to the designs of powerful elements in the party that preferred the late President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua. Senator Makarfi had an eventful tenure as Kaduna State governor for eight years. His outing as national caretaker chairman is also a plus.
He is associated with an alleged debilitating illness that could interfere with the responsibilities of a president, as well as a limited means to compete favourably against an incumbent.
Aminu Tambuwal
His emergence as Speaker of the Seventh House of Representatives was said to have offended PDP leaders in 2011. Yet that political progression played Tambuwal to the centre of national politics. His wide circle of contacts oiled by his stint as speaker is seen as strengthening his aspiration for the presidential post.
Sandwiched by former governors Bafarawa and Wammako and the role he was said to have played during the selection of Speaker of the Eighth House of Representatives in addition to claims of overambition are the low points of Tambuwal’s presidential chase. A lot of people doubt his ability to upset the incumbent.
Attahiru Bafarawa
He served purposeful eight years in office as governor of Sokoto State and reputed as a grassroots politician with bias for rural development and peace building.
Has limited name and face recognition nationwide. Crossing over from APC in 2014 after being displaced by his political godson, Senator Magatakarda Wamakko, tells on his presidential ambition. He is also weighed down by a tepid campaign for delegates.
David Mark
The former President of Senate is reputed to have stabilised the National Assembly after the tempestuous Olusegun Obasanjo era. He rides on the crest of rising Middle Belt consciousness and power rotation in the north. His experience in the armed forces is said to be among his strong points given the spiralling insecurity in the country, especially in his home state and the Middle Belt
But, Mark’s military background and as a Christian minority, coupled with his late entry into the presidential fray might work against him at the primary. He is said to have limited force to defeat the incumbent.
Datti Baba-Ahmed
The senator surprised many when he defeated former governor Makarfi in the 2011 Senatorial election for Kaduna North. Yusuf Baba-Ahmed, who has been executing a technical campaign, is being considered as one of possible compromise candidates.
However, he is said to be bogged down by low name and face recognition in addition to perceived elitist bent.
Ibrahim Dankwambo
Dankwambo is reputed to have done an excellent job in developing Gombe State and uniting the divisive ethnic populations. He has youth and academic accomplishments in his favour. As a team player, he is said to have the capacity to raise the financial resources necessary to prosecute the election against the incumbent.
However, the governor is bogged down by low face and name recognition, as well as lack of energetic campaigns nationwide.
Jonah Jang
Jang made national headlines when he emerged as the chairman of Nigeria Governors’ Forum after a controversial election that split the forum during the buildup to the 2015 poll.
The former governor of Plateau State, like Mark, is from the northern minorities and is bogged down by age and limited name and face recognition. He is said to lack the means and national reach to compete favourably against the incumbent.
Kabiru Tanimu Turaki
Turaki gained national acclaim during his stint as Minister of Special Duties and Inter-governmental Relations. He also headed a committee charged with investigating the circumstances surrounding the Boko Haram insurgency. The former minister also became visible during the PDP leadership crisis with his chairmanship of the forum of ministers. The forum has emerged as a powerful political action group pressing for Turaki as the compromise candidate.
Nonetheless, not having prior electoral experience or serving as governor, are some of the weaknesses ascribed to Turaki’s ambition.
Rabiu Kwankwaso
The Senator representing Kano Central succeeded in imposing his preferred candidate as successor after serving his final term as Kano State governor. Shortly after defecting from PDP to the newly formed APC in 2014, Kwankwaso contested the presidential and came second to Buhari in the party’s primary on December 6, 2014 in Lagos.
Kwankwaso had after that first attempt at contesting the presidential ticket used part of his past three years in the Senate to grow his Kwankwasiyya Movement around the country.
The Senator is accused of harbouring some fundamentalist ideals and being intolerant of opposing political views. He is also said to be burdened with limited national acclaim and low face recognition. He has huge following, generous spirit and charisma to outwit his opponent.
Sule Lamido
As former governor of Jigawa State, Lamido is long associated with presidential aspiration. A grassroots politician. He is credited with many populist programmes during his eight years as governor. His association with the Aminu Kano brand of politics endears him to the masses. He enjoys nationwide face and name recognition, having served as the national secretary of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), when M.K.O Abiola was believed to have won the presidential poll, as reported by ThisDay.
However, any of these trios- Kwankwaso, Lamido and Makarfi- who share the same North West with President Buhari could upset the applecart of the 2019 presidential elections by beating the president below the upper cut but not giving him a knock-out in the race. Therefore giving presidential ticket to one of these aspirants who will be a game changer may brighten the chances of the PDP during the forthcoming elections.
