Aniefiok Christopher
A renowned Economist, Professor Akpan Hogan Ekpo, has warned Federal Government against borrowing without corresponding infrastructure gains.
This is as President Bola Tinubu has written to the Senate to approve the Federal Government’s 2026–2027 Supplementary External Borrowing Plan, involving $20.52 billion and €1.05 billion, to finance infrastructure and development projects across the country.
Speaking in an interview with ARISE NEWS on Tuesday, Ekpo said this would place an unfair burden on future generations, who would inherit the debt without benefiting from the projects financed.
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He said, “One is you have to consider the intergenerational aspect. Because what we are borrowing today, we will not pay for it. It’s our children and grandchildren.”
Questioning the outcome of previous borrowing exercises, Ekpo said, “We’ve been borrowing for the last so many years. What has been the outcome? And here, I’m not holding a brief for any party. I’m talking as an economist and an expert.”
He also expressed concern about the timing of the proposed borrowing, noting that the request for about 20 billion dollars and 1.73 billion euros, coming two or three months before an election, was worrisome.
He warned that increased borrowing could inject more money into the economy and eventually contribute to inflationary pressures.
The one-time Vice Chancellor of the University of Uyo, cautioned the Federal Government to put its proposed external borrowing on hold, insisting that Nigeria must address transparency concerns, strengthen public financial management and prioritise manufacturing to achieve sustainable economic growth.
Ekpo said borrowing was not inherently wrong but must be backed by proper feasibility studies, cost-benefit analyses and clear plans for deploying the funds.
He said, “There’s nothing really wrong in borrowing, whether you’ve done your analysis well and you are borrowing to finance capital projects, which implies that the project will have gone through a cost-benefit analysis or feasibility studies before you borrow.”
He identified transparency and accountability as the major concerns surrounding the government’s borrowing plans, stressing that Nigerians must know what borrowed funds are being used for and be able to assess the results.
He said, “The problem we have, in my view, is that the issue of transparency and accountability in terms of borrowing, as I’ve said, the main focus should be what are we using the borrowed money for. When you say roads and so on and so forth, it’s very opaque.”
Ekpo maintained that investments in power, security, healthcare and education must produce measurable results, adding that the government should demonstrate the impact of such projects within three to four years.
He also questioned the adequacy of legislative oversight over the borrowing requests, warning that the National Assembly must thoroughly examine the proposals before granting approval.
He said, “My worry is that the parliament, the senate, when I look at what they do, the oversight is not thorough enough.”
On Nigeria’s debt sustainability, Ekpo argued that the country’s debt-to-revenue ratio was a more important measure than its debt-to-GDP ratio, given the country’s dependence on oil exports and the volatility of oil prices and production.
He said, “The debt revenue issue to me is much more important than the debt GDP ratio. Because when I last checked, most of our revenue comes from oil export. And that revenue source is not that – there’s not much guarantee because the oil price, we have no control. The output, we have no control. So it’s very volatile.”
He added that the country could not sustainably depend on revenue sources over which it had little control to finance development.
Ekpo also raised concerns about the low release of funds for capital expenditure, describing the situation as serious and calling for a review of the entire budget process.
Turning to Nigeria’s economic growth ambitions, the economist identified manufacturing as critical to achieving the Federal Government’s one-trillion-dollar economy target by 2030.
He noted that the sector had contributed less than 12 per cent to Nigeria’s GDP over the last 60 years, while manufacturing exports accounted for about two per cent of total exports.
According to him, manufacturing imports represented 48 per cent of total imports in 2025, highlighting the country’s continued dependence on imported products.
He said, “If you want to enhance growth in our economy and become industrialized, you have to look at the manufacturing sector. That’s what we’ve been looking at.”
Ekpo argued that government policies should create an enabling environment for manufacturers, encourage exports and strengthen domestic production to generate foreign exchange.
He said, “So without being productive, we cannot go anywhere. So that’s what I’m saying, that sector is crucial.”
The economist also called for greater support for small and medium-sized enterprises, questioning why existing government policies had failed to produce the expected results.
He attributed the challenges partly to administrative, recognition, operational and implementation delays in government policy execution.
Addressing concerns about the proportion of multilateral loans spent on consultants, Ekpo acknowledged that consultants performed necessary technical work but maintained that Nigeria had sufficient local expertise to strengthen its public financial management system.
He said, “Nigeria has enough experts to do these things and even ignore the World Bank and the IMF. And it has been done before in this country.”
The Professor reiterated the need for transparency, comprehensive legislative oversight and productive investments, warning that Nigeria’s economy remained at a crossroads without fundamental improvements in domestic production.
